North Central (Indpls)
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #16
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #7
Noblesville Regional Rank #4
Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.6%
Top 10 at State Finals 7.7%
Advance to State Finals 25.3%
Advance to Semi-State 89.6%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Zionsville Early Bird (4k) Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Ben Davis Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Marion County Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/24 9/7 9/14 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 324 296 305 351 731 321 362 329 477 349 344
Team Adjusted Rating 296 282 351 324 285 321 329 375 349 344
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Zionsville Early Bird (4k) Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Ben Davis Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Marion County Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
7  Alex Frey 12 15:45 15:36 15:26 15:36 15:40 15:52 15:55 16:19 15:46 15:49 16:26
99  Howard Hendricks 12 16:36 16:28 16:34 16:40 16:11 16:53 16:32 16:47 16:39
127  Nate Killeen 9 16:46 16:36 17:14 16:58 17:07 16:33 16:33
299  Jon Petersen 11 17:13 17:15 16:59 17:10 17:16 17:03 17:07 17:12 17:30 17:25
310  Aaron Broderick 11 17:14 17:08 17:06 17:04 17:07 17:28 17:16 17:23
445  Hayden Monk 10 17:29 17:44 17:34 17:31 17:21 17:30 17:26
503  Sawyer Husain 10 17:35 17:42 17:40 17:13 17:14 17:20 18:07 17:32 17:41 17:46
536  Xavier Guarneros 9 17:37 17:15 17:03 17:59 18:00 17:14 18:05
559  Andrew Charbonneau 9 17:39 17:38 17:41 17:36 17:37 17:44
585  Dominik Hickman 11 17:41 17:56 17:27 17:57 18:01 17:41 17:34 17:34
679  Woodrow Murray 11 17:51 17:53 17:47 17:47 18:03 17:28 18:09
698  Gabe Chambers 10 17:52 17:41 18:08 17:48 17:30 18:00 18:07
930  Henry Deryke 10 18:12 18:07 18:24 18:07
968  Jack Strabala 10 18:15 18:23 18:33 18:15 17:58
1,045  Nick Davis 12 18:21 18:43 18:11 18:15 18:24
1,297  Henry Leffler 9 18:38 18:42 18:43 18:50 18:41 18:37 18:26
1,339  Robert Fitzgerald 10 18:41 18:43 18:35 18:48 18:42
1,421  David Lamb 12 18:47 18:49 18:51 18:44
1,422  Brooks Hillenbrand 11 18:47 18:44 18:13 19:21 18:50
1,430  CJ Brizzi 11 18:48 18:38 18:53 19:00 18:41
1,562  Jaiden Gray 9 18:56 19:55 19:03 18:50 19:03 18:45 18:49
Daniel Scherrer 10 19:06 19:15 18:56 18:55 19:10 19:21
Brody Friend 9 19:15 19:29 19:43 19:18 19:34 19:03 18:50
Grady Hadar 9 19:17 19:38 20:08 19:17 18:55 19:14 19:13




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 25.3% 12.3 326 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.7 1.9 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 89.6% 7.4 207 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.9 13.4 22.7 18.6 12.3 6.2 3.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 4.4 120 0.1 1.2 10.3 50.7 27.4 9.1 1.3 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.2 64 2.1 80.4 17.1 0.5



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Frey 100.0% 7.9 3.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 8.3 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 4.3 5.3 4.4 3.8 4.0 2.7 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.7 99.9% 100.0%
Howard Hendricks 30.4% 68.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 6.8% 16.2%
Nate Killeen 25.6% 86.8 0.1 0.4% 3.4%
Jon Petersen 25.3% 150.2 0.0% 0.0%
Aaron Broderick 25.3% 149.9 0.0% 0.0%
Hayden Monk 25.3% 174.7 0.0% 0.0%
Sawyer Husain 25.3% 181.9 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Frey 100% 3.1 18.2 16.1 14.9 11.1 8.5 8.5 6.8 4.0 3.5 2.1 2.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 100.0% 100.0%
Howard Hendricks 98.1% 37.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.1 81.3% 96.3%
Nate Killeen 93.6% 47.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 38.3% 82.3%
Jon Petersen 89.6% 86.4 0.0% 11.3%
Aaron Broderick 89.6% 88.6 0.0% 9.5%
Hayden Monk 89.6% 112.6 0.0% 0.8%
Sawyer Husain 89.6% 121.6 0.0% 0.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Frey 100% 1.8 27.6 26.4 16.1 11.6 7.5 5.9 2.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 100.0%
Howard Hendricks 100% 18.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 2.6 4.7 4.4 4.7 5.5 5.3 5.6 6.4 7.8 7.4 6.4 6.0 4.8 4.4 3.4 100.0%
Nate Killeen 100% 23.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.7 2.6 4.1 5.1 4.8 5.9 6.8 5.7 6.2 5.8 100.0%
Jon Petersen 100% 42.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 100.0%
Aaron Broderick 100% 43.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 100.0%
Hayden Monk 100% 54.2 0.1 99.5%
Sawyer Husain 100% 58.0 99.2%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Frey 1.2 38.2 52.5 6.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.1
Howard Hendricks 8.3 1.3 3.4 4.4 7.6 13.0 16.3 15.2 13.2 8.6 6.6 4.8 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
Nate Killeen 11.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 3.8 6.0 10.0 13.4 14.2 12.7 10.1 7.9 7.1 4.5 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Jon Petersen 19.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.7 6.9 8.4 9.1 11.1 10.1 8.4 8.2 6.9 4.8
Aaron Broderick 20.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.4 4.0 4.4 6.9 9.1 9.2 10.5 9.3 8.8 7.0 7.0 5.1
Hayden Monk 26.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.0 3.9 5.2 7.7 6.3 8.2
Sawyer Husain 29.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.6 3.4 3.9 5.0